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Announcement: Open Research Seminar on International Business Cycles: Quantifying the Effects of a World Market for Oil

8 May 2018

Press Release


On 14 May 2018, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) will host an open research seminar on International Business Cycles: Quantifying the Effects of a World Market for Oil. Respective study was conducted by Johan Gars, researcher at the Global Economic Dynamics and the Biosphere program at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, and Conny Olovsson, PhD, senior economist at the Research Department of Sveriges Riksbank, who will present this research paper at the seminar.


The authors quantify the contribution of exogenous changes originating in the oil market to international business cycles, and relate them to the role of exogenous changes originating outside the oil market. The researchers argue that their model is capable of explaining of two well-known puzzles. The first puzzle is that, in contrast to existing models’ predictions, empirical findings usually demonstrate higher cross-country correlations for output than for consumption (this is so called consumption correlation puzzle). The second puzzle requires clarification of relatively strong positive correlations between employment and investment, whereas in theory correlations should have been negative (international comovement puzzle). Seminar attendees will have the opportunity to discuss with the researcher possible explanations for these paradoxes.


Dr. Conny Olovsson received Ph.D. in Economics from the Stockholm University. He also worked as a visiting researcher at the Institute for International Economic Studies. Dr. Olovsson has 20 years teaching experience in the fields of Quantitative methods in macroeconomics and Mathematics. His research interests include macroeconomics, economic growth, asset pricing and climate economics.


The seminar’s working language will be English.


The research paper is available at link.


 Seminar venue: room 206, 9, Instytutska St., Kyiv. The venue can be accessed via the central entrance.


The seminar starts at 2 p.m. Registration of participants will take place from 1.45 p.m. to 1.55 p.m. To be admitted into the NBU, which is a restricted access facility, you must show your ID.


In order to participate in the seminar, please submit an application stating your forename, surname, place of employment, and contact details (telephone, e-mail) to research@bank.gov.ua. The application deadline is 5 p.m. on 11 May 2018. Given the limited number of available seats, the NBU reserves the right to accept or reject applications. Each participant will receive an email saying whether their application has been accepted or rejected.


The NBU invites researchers to present findings of their studies on issues related to the NBU’s activities and the operation of the financial system at the NBU’s research seminars. Email your proposals (stating a desired seminar date, presentation materials, an executive summary and/or draft contributions) to the NBU Research Division of the Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis Department (email: research@bank.gov.ua).


The materials of previous open research seminars are available at link.


The NBU launched open research seminars in July 2015. These seminars provide an opportunity to the representatives of the academic and expert community, international financial institutions, other central banks, and the NBU to share their research findings, and to discuss them with their peers.


Last modification   08.05.2018