In September 2017, the current account deficit is estimated to remain at the level of September 2016 (USD 1 billion), having widened expectedly from August 2017 because of scheduled interest payments on restructured sovereign Eurobonds.

Over nine months of 2017, the current account deficit has slightly increased: to USD 3.0 billion from USD 2.7 billion year-on-year. This was primarily due to large purchases of energy resources and agricultural equipment.

At the same time, exports of goods and services also grew rapidly thanks to benign external conditions.

In September, exports of goods amounted to USD 3.4 billion, accelerating to 17.7% from 13.6% yoy in August, mainly on higher food exports (up by 22.5%).

Exports of oil seeds continued to grow at a fast pace, increasing 1.7 times yoy, while growth in sunflower oil exports slowed to 10.1% yoy. Dairy exports grew 1.8 times yoy on surging butter exports (3.8 times yoy).

A rise in global prices for certain grains (wheat and barley) and high crop yields pushed the value of grain exports up by 8.1% yoy. Exports of metal products grew 7.6% yoy amid favorable price environment.

Over nine months of 2017, exports of goods increased 20.7% yoy (goods exports declined by 9.8% in January–September 2016). The EU remained Ukraine’s largest trading partner, with its share in total exports of goods reaching 35.2%.

In September, imports of goods came in at USD 4.3 billion, accelerating to 21.0% from 10.0% yoy in August, driven both by energy and non-energy imports.

In particular, natural gas import volumes rose to 1.3 billion cu. m (up by 30% from August). Import volumes of oil products also grew rapidly (by 16.6% yoy). A shortage of coal on the domestic market has made coal imports rise 1.6 times yoy. As a result, energy imports have grown 38.7% yoy.

In September, machinery imports increased 30.4% yoy, primarily as the number of imported cars grew 1.7 times on the back of gradual resumption of car loan issue.

Over nine months of the year, imports of goods have risen 21.9% yoy on high volumes of energy and machinery purchases. Imports from the EU accounted for 37.6% of the total goods imports.

In September, net financial account inflows increased to USD 1.6 billion, largely coming from sovereign Eurobonds placement (USD 1.3 billion).

Net inflows to the real sector remained practically unchanged month-on-month (USD 0.5 billion.) A slower decline in FX cash outside banks (USD 0.2 billion) was offset by larger outstanding on trade credits (up by USD 0.3 billion).

Net inflows of foreign direct investment reached USD 0.2 billion in September, over 80% of which was directed to the real sector. Over nine months of the year, foreign direct investment inflows (excluding debt-to-equity transactions) rose 40% yoy: to USD 1.6 billion from USD 1.15 billion in 2016.

In September, the Balance of Payments of Ukraine recorded a surplus of USD 637 million. This allowed Ukraine to increase its international reserves to USD 18.6 billion (as of 1 October 2017) or 3.7 months of future imports.

The September 2017 data are available under the External Sector Statistics section.

Read more about September’s macroeconomic developments in the Macroeconomic and Monetary Review (October 2017), which will be published on 31 October 2017.