In September 2011, the year-on-year growth in the production index of basic industries slowed down to 10.5%, compared with 11.6% in August, against the backdrop of the high base of comparison of the previous year. In the nine months of 2011, it grew by 10.2%, compared with the corresponding period of 2010.

Due to a deterioration in the external economic conditions, the dynamics of export-oriented industries worsened in September. In September, the year-on-year increase in the output of metallurgy industry slowed down to 7% versus 18.7% in August. The year-on-year growth in the chemical and petrochemical industry output slowed down to 9.4% versus 21.4% in August. As a result, the year-on-year industrial production growth fell from 9.6% in August to 6.4% in September, whereas its contribution to the increase in the production index of basic industries declined to 3.5 p.p. (5.3 p. p. in August).

However, the curtailed contribution to the increase in the production index of basic industries was offset by a significant increase in the agricultural output (by13.7% over 9 months)  on account of this year’s bumper crop of grain and vegetables.  An increase in the output of crop production accelerated to 21.1% over nine months (17.6% over 8 months). As of 30 September, 39.7 million tons of grain crops had been gathered, their yielding capacity being higher by 23.3% than the yielding capacity registered in 2010.

The year-on-year increase in retail goods turnover remained at a high level (15.2% in September) and continued to exceed the year-on-year growth in real wages (8.4% in August).

According to estimates made by the Department, GDP growth corresponded to the dynamics of the production index of basic industries. In the third quarter of 2011, GDP growth stood at 3% (excluding seasonal factor), with annualized GDP growth  exceeding 6%.

The complete wording of the analytical note has been published on the official website of the National Bank of Ukraine.