Eric Monnet (Paris School of Economics) will present the research paper “One Ring to Rule Them All? New Evidence on World Cycles”. Author estimates world cycles using a new quarterly dataset of output, credit and asset prices assembled using IMF archives and covering a large set of advanced and emerging economies since 1950. Findings suggest that world cycles, both real and financial, exist and are generally driven by US shocks, but their impact is modest for most countries. He also challenges the view that syncronization has increased over time. Although this is true for prices (goods and assets), this not true for quantities (output and credit). The world business and credit cycles were as strong during Bretton Woods (1950–1972) as during the Globalization period (1984-2006). For most countries, the way their output co-moves with the rest of the world has changed little over the last 70 years.
Access: https://uva-live.zoom.us/j/85133300073?pwd=bjFaYkVqSVpxUmN6NElZcWhhdWI2Zz09
(Meeting ID: 851 3330 0073, Passcode: 516037).