Open Research Seminar

Mehmet Burak Turgut, PhD Candidate in Economics and Finance at Bocconi University, will present the research paper Fiscal News, Imperfect Information and Confidence. The study explores confidence channel of fiscal policy on consumption. The author takes into consideration the anticipated component of future government spending, using the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The researcher finds evidence of imperfect information in SPF forecasts and shows how to account for it in a VAR setting. According to results, consumer confidence, output, and consumption increase in response to a fiscal news shock. The author develops a DSGE model with imperfect information to offer an alternative explanation for the crowding-in effect of government spending on consumption. To participate in the seminar, please submit an application containing your first name, last name, place of employment, and contact details (telephone, e-mail) to [email protected]. Applications must be submitted by 10 a.m. on 14 February 2020. Applicants will be notified via email whether their application has been accepted. The registration of participants will take place from 13:40 to 13:55 a.m. The NBU is a restricted access facility, and a photo identification is required to be admitted.