Authors: Anton Grui, Artem Vdovychenko
Abstract: This paper introduces the Quarterly Projection Model utilized by the National Bank of Ukraine to make its regular macroeconomic forecasts and monetary policy recommendations. The model is a semi-structural representation of an open-economy New-Keynesian general equilibrium model. It captures the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the context of the Ukrainian economy. Among the economy’s key features are the disinflation agenda, heterogeneous prices, imperfect monetary policy credibility, high openness and dollarization.
Cite as: Grui, A., Vdovychenko, A. (2019). Quarterly Projection Model for Ukraine. NBU Working Papers, 3/2019. Kyiv: National Bank of Ukraine. Retrieved from https://bank.gov.ua/admin_uploads/article/WP_2019-03_Grui_Vdovychenko_en.pdf.