Event start date: 17.02.2020 11:00

On 17 February 2020, the National Bank of Ukraine hosted an open research seminar, during which Mehmet Burak Turgut, PhD Candidate in Economics and Finance at Bocconi University, presented the research Fiscal News, Imperfect Information and Confidence.

The study explores confidence channel of fiscal policy on consumption. The author takes into consideration the anticipated component of future government spending, using the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The researcher finds evidence of imperfect information in SPF forecasts and shows how to account for it in a VAR setting. According to results, consumer confidence, output, and consumption increase in response to a fiscal news shock. The author develops a DSGE model with imperfect information to offer an alternative explanation for the crowding-in effect of government spending on consumption. Materials from the seminar are available via the links below.