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Analytical Note "Analysis of the State of the Ukrainian Economy" (December 2011)

Against a backdrop of a high comparison basis of the previous year, the growth in the production index of basic industries continued to decelerate to 5% year-on-year in December 2011. However, the annual growth in the production index of basic industries remained high, standing at 10.1%.

The major contributor to the growth in the production index of basic industries in December was agriculture (3.4 p. p.). Owing to a high yield of crops and vegetables, in December the agricultural output grew by 20% year-on-year, the annual growth standing at 17.5%.

A narrowing of external demand was a key factor behind the deterioration in the dynamics of export-oriented industries. December saw a decline in the output of metallurgy industry (-4.7% year-on-year), chemical and petrochemical industry (-1.1%), their aggregate negative contribution to the change in the industrial output in December made up 1 p. p. As a result, a slowing of industrial output growth was followed by a decline in the industrial output (-0.5% year-on-year in December).  However, the annual growth rate of industrial output remained high, standing at 7.3%.

The construction output was up by 11.1% in 2011. After a significant volume of construction works was completed in the previous periods, and against the background of an increase in the comparison basis of the previous year, December saw a reduction in the construction output growth, which stood at 3.6% year-on-year.

The retail trade growth remained high in December, standing at over 16% year-on-year. The volume of retail trade climbed by 14.7% in 2011.

According to estimates made by the Department with taking into account a 19% increase in the volumes of services rendered, GDP growth slightly exceeded 5% in 2011.

 

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