In July 2025, inflation continued to slow, to 14.1% yoy. In monthly terms, prices decreased 0.2%. This is according to data published by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.
The actual trajectory of inflation turned out to be below the forecast path featured in the July Inflation Report, primarily due to a more significant decline in vegetable prices. Meanwhile, the slowdown in core inflation was almost in line with the forecast and is attributable to a lower pace of price growth in all of core inflation’s main components: processed foods, services, and non-food products.
The growth in prices for raw food products began to slow, to 28.0%
The increase in prices for vegetables decelerated in annual terms as newly harvested crops boosted supply. The growth in prices for flour and cereals also slowed faster than projected.
By contrast, all types of meat rose in price at an increasing rate because of higher production costs and lower livestock numbers. The rate of increase in fruit prices rose due to spring frosts, which had eaten away at the supply of apples, stone fruits, and berries. The rise in egg prices also picked up.
Core inflation continued to decline, to 11.7%
The growth in the prices of processed foods decelerated to 18.0% yoy. Specifically, the increase in prices for bread, sunflower oil, non-alcoholic beverages, and certain dairy products lost speed. Butter price growth cooled as well, though more moderately than anticipated.
Services inflation continued to decline, to 14.0%, as pressure from the labor market eased. In particular, price increases decelerated for healthcare, communications, recreation and culture, eating out, and transportation.
The growth in the prices of non-food products also slowed, to 3.2%. The fall in prices for clothing and footwear deepened.
The pace of the rise in administered prices edged marginally higher, to 11.0%
Driven by the further increase in prices for tobacco products, that uptrend was in line with the forecast.
Fuel price growth kept picking up, to 6.7%
Fuel price increases continued to gather speed, running above the forecast and being primarily driven by pass-through effects from the hryvnia’s depreciation against the euro in previous periods.