In November 2025, inflation continued to slow, to 9.3% yoy. In monthly terms, prices rose 0.4%. This is according to data published by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.
Due to a more significant slowdown in raw food price increases and core inflation, the actual inflation trajectory was running slightly below the forecast trajectory published in the October Inflation Report. Core inflation was lower than the forecast due to a sharper slowdown in price increases for non-food products and services.
Annual pace of growth in raw food prices continued to slow, to 9.6% yoy
The fall in vegetable prices deepened (to 27.8% yoy), particularly due to borshch vegetables. One of the main reasons was difficulty storing rather high crop yields. The growth in fruit prices decelerated marginally, while some of the fruits exhibited mixed price dynamics. The pace of increase in flour prices slowed because of a rise in milling wheat as a share of the harvest. For milk prices, the slowdown was driven by weak domestic demand and falling global prices. A higher supply of pork from EU-based competitors interrupted a long uptrend in pork prices. The growth in chicken prices decelerated as external prices declined further.
Core inflation extended its decrease, to 9.3%
The growth in the prices of processed foods decelerated to 14.0% yoy. Price increases for some of the dairy products also slowed further, including for butter and cheese.
The growth in non-food product prices continued to cool off, to 0.8% yoy. Prices for clothing and footwear declined at a steady rate, while the growth in prices for other non-food products kept losing steam.
Services inflation also decreased to 13.4%. One of the factors could have been a partial weakening of the pressure from the labor market, in particular a cooling of the growth in real wages. As a result, price increases decelerated for insurance, financial services, housing rentals, apartment building management services, cafe and fast food restaurant services, outpatient services, and more.
Growth in administered prices decelerated incrementally, to 10.4% yoy
This change was driven by a slower pace of price growth for bread, pharmaceutical products, and alcoholic beverages, as well as an almost constant rate of price increases for tobacco products.
Fuel inflation picked up to 5.3%
Such price developments were due, among other things, to the growth in diesel prices in November amid rising external prices and complicated logistics.
Price pressures are seen to ease further in the coming months. The effects from the arrival of newly harvested crops will contribute to an extended slowing of food price growth. Meanwhile, the NBU’s measures to maintain interest in hryvnia-denominated assets and the sustainability of the FX market will restrain underlying prices pressures. As a result, consumer inflation is expected to keep decelerating, though at a slower pace than in previous periods, taking into account the fading of base effects.