In Q3 2025, real GDP grew 2.1% yoy and 0.8% qoq in seasonally adjusted terms, according to detailed GDP data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.
As previously forecast by the NBU, economic recovery picked up compared to Q2 2025. The main driver was a fiscal impulse fueled by rising budget expenditures. The energy situation improved in Q3 2025 compared with Q3 2024, giving GDP growth a significant boost.
The actual pace of real GDP growth matched the NBU’s estimate published in the October 2025 Inflation Report.
Economic recovery was driven by robust domestic demand
Consumption by the general government sector grew 12.2% yoy, making the largest positive contribution – 4.1 pp – to the change in real GDP. This fiscal boost was made possible by substantial international financing. Household final expenditures kept rising (up 6.7% yoy). Their contribution to GDP growth remained positive (3.9 pp).
Investment returned to growth
Gross fixed capital formation grew 11.5% yoy, providing a significant positive contribution (2.2 pp) to the change in real GDP. Apart from a pickup in construction activity, there was a buildup of investment in agricultural processing and in defense projects. This was facilitated by significant public capital spending, which in Q3 reached its third-highest nominal volume since the full-scale invasion began (the only times it was higher were Q4 2023 and Q4 2024).
Net exports’ negative contribution to GDP growth widened
Volumes of exports continued to shrink due to low agricultural inventories, weak demand for metallurgy products, and new terms of trade with the EU. Meanwhile, the increase in imports of goods and services accelerated amid higher purchases of machinery and metallurgy products to ramp up defense capabilities and restore infrastructure. As a result, the negative contribution of net exports to GDP growth rose to 8.9 pp.
Economic performance was uneven by sector
The scale-up of budget expenditures fueled the general government and defense sectors, whose GVA gained 15.1% yoy. Other public sectors also grew, such as education, healthcare, and social security.
The improvement in the energy situation in Q3 2025 compared with Q3 2024 helped accelerate the growth in the energy sector’s GVA (to 6.7% yoy) and bolstered other sectors. Those include manufacturing, whose GVA gained 1.7% yoy, and mining, where a decline in GVA slowed to 2.1% yoy.
Robust domestic demand, stable energy supply, and government support programs considerably accelerated the growth in construction volumes, to 31.5% yoy. Amid higher private consumption, the trade sector’s GVA extended its increase (up 2.6% yoy).
The decline in agricultural output slowed to 12.3% after part of the harvesting work was pushed back to Q3 from Q2. Meantime, the harvesting of late crops is going more slowly than previously projected, resulting in work being similarly back-loaded to Q4 from Q3. Poultry farming performance remained sustainable overall, and livestock farming kept edging lower as epizootic conditions worsened and the war ground on.
Transportation industry performance, which also went on declining, saw its decrease deepen to 9.3% yoy amid lower export volumes.
Gradual economic recovery to continue
The NBU’s October forecast has economic recovery accelerating to 3.4% in Q4 2025 on the back of expanded fiscal stimulus and private consumption. Based on previous quarters’ results, the NBU expects that real GDP growth in 2025 will be in the ballpark of the October forecast (1.9%). In the upcoming years, economic growth is projected to pick up moderately (to 2%–3%) due to stepped-up harvests and higher investments in reconstruction projects and the defense industry.
The course of the full-scale war continues to be the key risk to economic development. On top of that, GDP dynamics may be significantly impacted by the materialization of risks, especially those associated with irregularity and/or insufficiency of external funding.
However, a likelihood of positive scenarios taking place continues to exist. These would primarily be driven by a potential increase in military and financial support from partners and by the international community’s efforts to ensure a just and lasting peace for Ukraine.
The NBU’s revised forecast for 2026–2028 will be made public during the 29 January 2026 press briefing on monetary policy. More details will be released in the Inflation Report on 5 February 2026, as per the previously approved and published schedule.