In December 2025, inflation continued to slow, to 8.0% yoy. In monthly terms, prices grew by 0.2%. This is according to data published by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.
Actual inflation in December 2025 was below the forecast the NBU published in its October 2025 Inflation Report, primarily thanks to the continued effects of larger harvests. Core inflation was also lower than expected due to a sharper slowdown in price increases for non-food products and services on the back of weaker pressure from the labor market and the sustainable situation in the FX market.
Raw foods rose in price by 7.4% in 2025
In December, the growth in the prices of raw food products decelerated from November in annual terms. The fall in prices for borshch vegetables deepened due to difficulties in storing fairly large harvests. The growth in pork prices slowed on the back of increased imports, while milk prices rose more slowly due to lower prices for raw milk amid the accumulation of excess stocks driven by the decline in global prices. The suspension of dairy exports to the EU in December due to changes in licensing requirements for quota volumes also had a certain impact.
In 2025, core inflation decelerated to 8.0%
The growth in processed food prices slowed to 12.1% yoy, in particular due to slower growth in prices for butter, cheeses, and fermented milk products.
The growth in non-food goods prices halted in December (0.0% yoy), in particular due to the sustainable situation in the FX market. The decline in prices for clothing and footwear continued, while the growth in prices for other non-food goods continued to decelerate.
Services inflation slowed to 12.3% yoy in December against the backdrop of a gradual easing of pressure from the labor market. In particular, prices grew more slowly for insurance and financial services, cafe and fast food restaurant services, outpatient services, and more.
Administered prices increased by 9.7% in 2025
The slowdown in administered inflation in December was driven by a further deceleration of the growth in prices for bread, pharmaceutical products, and alcoholic beverages, as well as by a moderate decrease in growth rates of the prices of tobacco products.
Fuel inflation as of the end of 2025 was 6.4%
The faster growth in fuel prices in December was due to a further increase in prices of petrol and diesel fuel caused by problems with logistics, worsened weather conditions, and stronger demand amid power outages. An additional factor was the increase in the price of liquefied gas, driven by significant delays in supplies at the beginning of the month.
Inflation is expected to continue to slow in 2026, in particular thanks to the gradual easing of labor market mismatches, moderate external price pressures, and the NBU’s monetary policy measures.
The NBU’s updated macroeconomic forecast, including the inflation forecast for 2026–2028, will be presented at the press briefing on monetary policy decisions on 29 January 2026. The detailed macroeconomic forecast will be published in the Inflation Report on 5 February 2026.