NBU February 2026 Inflation Update

In February 2026, inflation accelerated to 7.6% yoy. In monthly terms, prices rose 1.0%. This is according to data published by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.

Actual headline inflation was running slightly above the trajectory of the NBU’s forecast published in the January 2026 Inflation Report.  Price increases for fuel, services, and raw foods exceeded projections, while processed food prices grew somewhat more slowly than expected. At the same time, core inflation was in line with the NBU’s forecast.

Growth in raw food prices picked up to 9.6% yoy

In February, the growth in prices for raw foods in annual terms accelerated for the second straight month. This uptrend was primarily fueled by higher prices for cucumbers and tomatoes amid rising import prices and borshch vegetables, as well as by an uptick in the price growth for fruits, particularly bananas and citrus fruits. Meantime, a slowdown in the growth of pork and chicken prices restrained price pressures.

Core inflation remained at 7.0% yoy

Price growth for processed foods continued to slow, to 9.9% yoy, in part due to further stabilization of dairy product prices driven by intensified competition from imports, and to a more sluggish pace of price increases for sunflower oil and confectionery.

Services inflation sped up to 12.3% yoy, mainly driven by higher prices for mobile communications, particularly due to the difficult situation in the energy sector.

The decline in prices for non-food products persisted (-0.4% yoy).

Administered prices rose at a slower pace of 8.8% yoy

February’s retreat in administered price inflation was primarily due to a lower rate of price increases for tobacco products and pharmaceuticals.

Fuel inflation surged to 8.0% yoy

The surge reflected the growth in European quotations amid rising geopolitical tensions and the depreciation of the hryvnia. Meanwhile, LPG prices held relatively steady throughout February due to low demand and a surplus of fuel in the market, both of which partially offset the increase in import prices.

Inflation remains moderate and is running close to the NBU’s forecast. However, the impact of inflationary factors has intensified over the past month, powered by rising global geopolitical tensions and higher volatility of energy prices, among other things. These and other drivers that have the potential to cause inflation to deviate from the forecast trajectory will be taken into account in future monetary policy decisions.