The regular quarterly survey of enterprise presidents/managers on their assessment of the current and future business activity, inflation and exchange rate expectations and changes in the economic situation in the country was conducted by the National Bank of Ukraine in August 2012. 1, 201 enterprises from all regions of Ukraine, representing the economy by main types of activity, patterns of ownership, size and staff number, were polled.
Disclaimer: The results of the survey reflect the opinions of respondents – Ukrainian business managers – and do not represent the official stance of the NBU.
According to Mr. Oleksandr Petryk, Director of General Economic Department, the survey results suggest that inflation expectations remained at the level of the previous quarter, the lowest level recorded in the survey history since 2006.
The respondents continue to refer to growing production costs as the major factor behind consumer price rises.
Furthermore, more than half of respondents (54.7%) expect the output of Ukrainian goods and services to remain unchanged.
The respondents have given a positive assessment of the current and future business activity over the next three and 12 months. In particular, the respondents have improved assessments of the current financial and economic standing of enterprises. The pickup of economic activity is expected in the next three months, especially with respect to an increase in the total volume of sales and further improvement of financial and economic standing of enterprises.
“According to the survey results, Business outlook index stood at 115.1% in Q3 2012, suggesting that the pickup of economic activity is expected in the next 12 months,” noted Mr. Oleksandr Petryk.
The respondents forecast improvement of financial and economic standing of their enterprises, growth in output sales volumes and investment expenditures, as well employment rises over the next 12 months.
According to the survey results, the respondents expect production costs to continue to grow at a slow pace. Price increases for energy carriers (63.9% responses) and raw materials and supplies (62.5% responses) have remained the major output price drivers. The assessment of influence of the interest rate for loans, tax pressure, prices in the global commodity markets and competition with foreign producers has decreased.
The respondents expect that the need for borrowed funds will grow in the next three months. The percentage of the respondents planning to take out bank loans has remained at the level of the previous quarter, with the share of those planning to take out the hryvnia loans having increased.
The proportion of respondents complaining about problems with timely and full execution of transactions with the funds on bank accounts has fallen to a record low of 2.9% in the survey history, as compared with 4.1% recorded in the previous quarter.
“Therefore, businesses are upbeat about the future and expect the pickup of economic activity in the next 12 months,” noted Mr. Oleksandr Petryk.