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Please note: NBU economic publications have been revised

Starting from February 2015, the National Bank streamlines a range of economic publications and launches  "The Macroeconomic and Monetary Report" that will be released on a monthly basis on the 28th day of the month following the month under review. This report will provide analysis of the key economic developments in Ukraine and across the world. Among other things, this paper will provide analysis of inflation developments, economic activity and labour market developments, public finances, the balance of payments, monetary sector and financial market developments.

The Monetary Report, the Balance of Payments Estimates and the Analysis of the Economic Conditions will merge into the aforementioned paper.

The first issue of this report suggests that the global economy appeared to grow at a slower pace than initially expected that led to a downward revision to economic growth forecasts for most world economies over the next two years. The moves by the governments and central banks aimed at boosting economic growth will help drive stronger external demand. January 2015 saw volatility in financial markets, price decreases for primary commodities and sustained high risk premiums for emerging market economies.

The adverse developments in the Ukrainian economy that emerged last year, triggered primarily by hostilities, weaker external demand as well as subdued consumer and investment demand, persisted into January 2015. In particular:

  • In January, the consumer price index accelerated to 28.5%  y-o-y, with the core CPI climbing to  26.1%, driven by the effects of hryvnia depreciation,  high inflationary and devaluation expectations, and rises in excise taxes;
  • the fall in industrial output accelerated to 21.3% y-o-y, but the output index in basic industries was somewhat stronger due to a lower negative contribution of agricultural output at the start of the year;
  • in January, state budget expenditures rose y-o-y, whereas budget revenues fell,  the budget deficit was primarily funded by domestic borrowings;
  • the balance of payments' current account deficit (USD 342 million) remained at the level recorded in January 2013;  the ongoing fall in the gold and foreign exchange reserves (to USD 6.4 billion) was caused by  the outflow of capital on the capital account of the balance of payments;
  • the outflow of deposits, primarily household deposits,  continued, with banking system liquidity remaining high due to a reduction of cash in circulation and liquidity support provided by the National Bank.

In early February, as part of part of the run-up to the adoption of the inflation-targeting regime, the National Bank modified the operational framework for monetary policy implementation. In particular, the regulator discontinued the practice of holding foreign exchange auctions (effective from February 5, 2015) and scrapped the indicative hryvnia exchange rate. At the same time, in order to reduce inflationary pressures, the discount rate was raised to 19.5% per annum.

“We have held discussions with the users of information produced by the National Bank. Following these discussions, we have streamlined a range of analytical papers. Going forward, all the prompt analytical information will be presented in one paper "The Macroeconomic and Monetary Report", whereas individual statistical products will be disseminated in a more prompt manner,” said Director of the Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis Department Serhii Nikolaichuk. This paper will be used in the run-up to the meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee. Serhii Nikolaichuk also said that as part of the efforts to enhance the institutional capacity and communications of the NBU, starting from April, the regulator will publish a quarterly Inflation Report.

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