The regular quarterly survey of enterprise presidents/managers on their assessment of the current and future business activity, inflation and exchange rate expectations and economic outlook for the country was conducted in November 2012.
Disclaimer: The results of the survey reflect the opinions of respondents – Ukrainian business managers – as of November 2012, and do not represent the views and policies of the NBU.
Inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained at the level of the previous quarter and are lower than the average ones for the whole period of surveys. The respondents continue to refer to the growing production costs as the major consumer price driver.
The respondents have improved their expectations about the financial and economic standing of their enterprises. They expect a rise in investment spending on machinery and equipment, a higher number of employees at their enterprises over the next 12 months. The respondents are less confident about future growth in sales and investments in construction. As a result, the Business Outlook Index stood at 114.3% in the fourth quarter compared with 115.1% in the third quarter. The respondents expect some slowing of economic activity over the next 3 months due to seasonal factors.
The respondents expect a rise in input and output prices. According to respondents, production costs will grow faster. The materials and supplies and also energy prices continue to be the leading output price drivers.
The respondents' expectations of the borrowing needs for the next three months became higher. Most of respondents plan to borrow in hryvnia.
In total, 1,240 enterprises from all regions of Ukraine, representing the economy by main types of activity, patterns of ownership, size and staff number, were polled.
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1 The Business Outlook Index is an aggregate indicator of expected enterprise development for the next 12 months. It is calculated on the basis of respondents’ balances of responses in relation to changes in the financial and economic standing of enterprises and future economic activity.