Businesses have adapted to the difficult conditions of the full-scale war and have been reporting an optimistic performance outlook for two months running in April. The positive outlook across all sectors for the near future resulted, among other things, from optimistic forecasts for international financing, re-established logistical chains, a seasonal revival in business activity, stronger domestic demand, and slower inflation. At the same time, damaged energy facilities, rising logistics and wage costs and shortages of qualified staff remained constraining factors.
This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI), which the NBU calculates on a monthly basis, apart from the forced break in March–May 2022. In April 2024, the BAEI was 52.3, up from 52.0 in March.
Construction companies reported the most optimistic performance expectations on the back of budgetary financing for the restoration of infrastructure, stronger domestic demand and favorable weather conditions, the sector’s index being 53.4 in April, down from 53.5 in March. Respondents were more confident about an increase in construction volumes, the number of new orders and in purchases of raw materials and supplies. Despite retaining negative views about the cost of contractor services and the availability of contractors, respondents expected to purchase more contractor services.
The seasonal revival of consumer demand, the widening of the sea corridor and slower inflation increased the positive economic outlook of services companies, the sector’s index being 53.1 in April, up from 50.6 in March. Respondents were more upbeat about a rise in the number of new orders, the amount of services provided, and the amount of services that are being provided.
The negative effect of rising logistics costs due to the blockade of Ukraine’s western border has somewhat weakened the positive economic outlook of trading companies, the sector’s index being 51.8 in April, down from 55.1 in March. Respondents expressed less confidence in a rise in trade turnover and the amount of goods purchased for sale. Companies remained upbeat about an increase in the cost of goods purchased for sale, while reporting weaker intentions to cut their trade margins.
Industrial companies continued to report a positive economic outlook for the near future, thanks to re-established logistical chains, stable consumer demand, and slower inflation, the sector’s index being 51.7 in April, up from 51.0 in March. Respondents expected a further increase in the amount of manufactured goods, the number of new orders for products and the number of new export orders. Respondents were slightly more pessimistic about the amount of their unfinished products and stocks of raw materials and supplies. Finished goods stocks were expected to remain at the previous month’s level.
With robust growth in purchase prices, companies across all surveyed sectors declared intentions to raise their selling prices further.
Labor market conditions remained unstable. Only construction companies reported intentions to expand their workforces slightly. Trading companies worsened their expectations, reporting intentions, together with other sectors, to cut their workforces somewhat.
This survey was carried out from 4 April through 23 April 2024. A total of 447 companies were polled. Of the companies polled, 45.0% are industrial companies, 28.0% services companies, 22.1% trading companies, and 4.9% construction companies; 31.3% of the respondents are large companies, 27.7% medium companies, and 40.9% small companies.
Out of the surveyed companies, 34.2% are both exporters and importers, 10.3% are exporters only, 16.3% are importers only, and 39.1% are neither exporters nor importers.
The findings presented reflect only the opinions of the respondents (top managers of Ukrainian companies), and should not be considered as NBU assessments.
The monthly business activity expectations index (BAEI) is a tool for conducting latest assessments and detecting trends in economic development. It is calculated on the basis of surveys of Ukrainian real sector companies.
Monthly business activity expectations indices are calculated on the basis of respondents’ replies. These indices are as follows: sectoral indices (for each sector of the economy) and a composite index (describes the country’s economic performance over a month). A value of 50 corresponds to the neutral level. Index values above the neutral level indicate positive expectations.
Read more about the April 2024 survey in the Monthly Business Surveys subsection of the Publications section on the NBU’s official website.
The NBU started posting monthly survey results in the open data format.
The results of the next survey (for May 2024) will be published on the first business day of June 2024.