In Q4 2025, businesses remained optimistic about their economic performance over the next 12 months. Respondents reported restrained expectations for the future output of Ukrainian goods and services, improved expectations for inflation, and slightly worsened exchange rate expectations.
The business outlook index (BOI) was 102.1%, compared to 102.5% in Q3 2025 (Q3)
Respondents remained upbeat about the financial and economic standings of their companies, total sales, and investment in machinery, equipment and tools. A rebound in business activity was expected by companies in 10 oblasts and across most economic sectors. Staffing level expectations were less gloomy.
Respondents continued to refer to the war and its repercussions as the most crucial factor that hampered their ability to step up production. Companies expected the impact of high energy prices, limited production capacity, and the shortage of qualified staff to increase most of all.
Businesses’ Macroeconomic Expectations for Ukraine
Respondents reported guarded expectations for the output of goods and services over the next 12 months, the balance of responses being (-1.8%), down from 6.1% in Q3.
Respondents in eight oblasts declared intentions to step up their output. The strongest intentions were reported by energy and water supply companies, large companies, and by companies that are neither exporters nor importers. The weakest intentions were reported by trading companies, small companies, and by companies that are exporters only.
Inflation expectations improved – in Q4 the expected annual inflation rate for the next 12 months was 11.1%, compared to 11.4% in the previous quarter. The percentage of respondents who believed that inflation would exceed 15.0% was 17.9%, down by 4.8 pp compared to the previous quarter.
A total of 83.4% of respondents continued to see the ongoing hostilities as the most important inflation driver. Respondents also expected that the impact of production costs and the exchange rate would be significant. In contrast, expectations for global price growth softened for the first time in the last five quarters. Furthermore, the impact of tax changes was reported to have weakened for three quarters running.
The UAH/USD exchange rate was projected to hit UAH 44.27 per USD 1, compared to UAH 44.11 per USD 1 in the previous quarter. 66.6% of respondents said the exchange rate would exceed UAH 43.50 per USD 1, while 32.9% of respondents believed that the exchange rate would range between UAH 40.51 and UAH 43.50 per USD 1.
Companies’ Current Standings and Their Business Outlook
Respondents continued to report restrained expectations about the current financial and economic standings of their companies, the balance of responses being (-5.8%), down from (-5.3%) in Q3.
Respondents retained a positive outlook for the financial and economic standings of their companies for the next 12 months, the balance of responses being 0.8%, down from 1.7% in Q3.
Optimistic expectations were reported by respondents from energy and water supply, manufacturing, and construction companies. In contrast, respondents from mining companies said they expected the financial and economic standings of their companies to be unchanged.
Businesses expected total sales, including external sales, to grow over the next 12 months, albeit at a slower pace, the balances of responses being 9.6% and 11.7% respectively, compared to 11.0% and 16.1% in Q3. Growth in total sales was expected across most sectors, and most of all by respondents from energy and water supply and manufacturing companies, as well as by respondents engaged in other economic activities. An increase in external sales was expected most of all by respondents from mining and transport and communications companies, as well as by respondents engaged in other economic activities.
Companies said they intended to step up investment in machinery, equipment and tools at a faster pace, the balance of responses being 7.0%, up from 4.3% in Q3. At the same time, respondents expressed guarded expectations for construction investment, the balance of responses being (-2.9%), compared to 0.0% in Q3.
Businesses that raise foreign investment retained expectations of investment growth over the next 12 months, the balance of responses being 15.5%, down from in 18.7% in Q3. The firmest expectations were declared by respondents from energy and water supply companies. The share of respondents who planned to raise foreign investment over the next 12 months was 21.5%, down from 23.3% in the previous survey.
Respondents reported a less pessimistic employment outlook for the next 12 months, the balance of responses being (-3.8%), compared to (-4.4%) in Q3. Respondents from energy and water supply companies and respondents engaged in other economic activities declared intentions to hire more staff over the next 12 months. At the same time, respondents from agricultural, mining, manufacturing, construction, trading, and transport and communications companies reported dim expectations, with mining companies being the most pessimistic.
The percentage of respondents who plan to take out bank loans grew to 35.8% (up from 33.3% in Q3) despite a further decrease in borrowing needs in the near future (to 31.7% in Q4, down from 32.8% in Q3).
Companies that intend to take out loans prefer hryvnia loans – 80.9%, compared to 78.8% in Q3. High loan rates remained the main factor deterring businesses from taking out new loans (43.9% of responses). The percentage of respondents who continued to cite the availability of other funding sources increased slightly, to 42.4%, up from 41.6% in the previous survey.
Conversely, the impact of collateral requirements decreased significantly, by 3.3 pp, to 26.5%.
Respondents improved their assessments of lending conditions, but still described these conditions as tight (the balance of responses was 11.6%, down from 12.4% in the previous quarter).
The percentage of respondents who intended to take out foreign loans was 7.1%, up from 6.8% in the previous quarter.
This survey was carried out between 3 November and 28 November 2025. A total of 663 companies in 21 oblasts took part in the survey (excluding the temporarily occupied territory of Crimea, as well as Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson oblasts). Of the businesses polled, 21.1% were in trade, 19.0% in manufacturing, 14.3% in agriculture, 13.9% in transport and communications, 6.0% in mining, 4.8% in energy and water supply, 3.3% in construction, and 17.5% in other sectors; 31.4% of the respondents were large companies, 36.7% medium companies, and 32.0% small companies.
The findings presented reflect only the opinions of the respondents (top managers of companies), and should not be considered as NBU assessments.
The business outlook index is an aggregated indicator for companies’ performance expectations over the next 12 months. It is calculated on the basis of survey findings as the arithmetic mean of the balances of responses regarding companies’ financial and economic standings, total sales of their own products, investment spending on construction, and on machinery, equipment and tools, as well as regarding staff numbers. An index above 100 indicates that positive economic sentiment prevails in society, while an index below 100 shows that negative economic sentiment prevails.