In April, businesses slightly weakened expectations of their current economic performance, which approached the neutral level. Respondents said that a significant worsening in weather conditions, protracted uncertainty about the further course of the war, rising business costs for raw materials and labor, accelerating inflation, the weakening of the UAH/EUR exchange rate, and shortages of qualified staff were some of the reasons for this. At the same time, sustained consumer demand, international financial assistance and the better-than-expected situation in the energy sector remained positive factors.
This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI), which the NBU calculates on a monthly basis, apart from a forced break in March–May 2022. In April 2025, the BAEI was 49.4, compared to 51.8 in March 2025 and 52.3 in April 2024.
Industrial companies continued to report the most optimistic performance expectations of all sectors amid stable consumer demand, stepped-up production and reestablished supply chains, the sector’s index being 51.8 in April, compared to 53.1 in March 2025 and 51.7 in April 2024. Respondents continued to expect an increase in the amount of manufactured goods, the number of new orders for products and the number of new export orders. In contrast, respondents said they expected a decrease in their stocks of raw materials and supplies and reported dimmer expectations for the amount of their unfinished products. Respondents also remained downbeat about their finished goods stocks.
Trading companies also reported an optimistic economic outlook thanks to a sufficient supply of goods and robust consumer demand, the sector’s index being 51.2 in April, compared to 54.0 in March 2025 and 51.8 in April 2024. Respondents were less upbeat about an increase in trade turnover and the amount of goods purchased for sale, while also reporting more pessimistic expectations about their stocks of goods for sale. As before, respondents continued to declare intentions to cut their trade margins, albeit at a slower pace.
Construction companies reported a guarded economic outlook on the back of a significant worsening in weather conditions, the sector’s index being 47.3 in April, compared to 52.9 in March 2025 and 53.4 in April 2024. Respondents significantly weakened their expectations about an increase in construction volumes, the number of new orders, and in purchases of raw materials and supplies. Respondents said they intended to purchase fewer contractor services on the back of firmer expectations of a rise in the cost of these services, and worsening expectations about the availability of contractors.
Services companies continued to report the most guarded economic outlook of all sectors. Respondents weakened their expectations amid high security risks and shortages of qualified staff, the sector’s index being 46.3 in April, compared to 48.8 in March 2025 and 53.1 in April 2024. In contrast to March, companies expected a drop in the amount of services provided and in the amount of services that are being provided, while also reporting more cautious expectations about the number of new orders for services.
Surveyed industrial, trading and services companies continued to expect that purchase prices would grow at a fast pace. They also declared strong intentions to raise their selling prices. In contrast, construction companies reported expectations of weaker price growth.
Staffing expectations have softened. Construction companies said they intended to hire more staff, while trading companies expected no changes. Conversely, industrial and services companies said they intended to cut their workforces.
This survey was carried out from 3 April through 23 April 2025. A total of 528 companies were polled. Of the companies polled, 43.8% are industrial companies, 26.5% services companies, 24.6% trading companies, and 5.1% construction companies; 28.8% of the respondents are large companies, 26.7% medium companies, and 44.5% small companies.
Of the surveyed companies, 31.1% are both exporters and importers, 9.8% are exporters only, 17.8% are importers only, and 41.3% are neither exporters nor importers.
The findings presented reflect only the opinions of the respondents (top managers of companies), and should not be considered as NBU assessments.
The monthly business activity expectations index (BAEI) is a tool for conducting latest assessments and detecting trends in economic development. It is calculated on the basis of surveys of Ukrainian real sector companies regarding changes in their performance compared to the previous month.
Monthly business activity expectations indices are calculated on the basis of respondents’ replies. These indices are as follows: sectoral indices (for each sector of the economy) and a composite index (describes the country’s economic performance over a month). A value of 50 corresponds to the neutral level. Index values above the neutral level indicate positive expectations.
Read more about the April 2025 survey in the Monthly Business Surveys subsection of the Publications section on the NBU’s official website.
The NBU posts monthly survey results in the open data format.
The results of the next survey (for May 2025) will be published on the first business day of June 2025