In March, businesses reported positive expectations for their economic performance, demonstrating flexibility, optimism, and adaptability to difficult conditions – despite the challenges posed by the large-scale war. Robust consumer demand, stepped-up production, international financial assistance, stabilized energy supplies, and seasonal factors had a positive effect on the expectations of companies across all economic sectors.
At the same time, intensified attacks on critical facilities, exchange rate and inflation expectations, and a shortage of skilled workers remained constraining factors.
This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI), which the NBU calculates on a monthly basis, apart from a forced break in March–May 2022. In March 2025, the BAEI was 51.8 (exceeding the neutral level for the first time in 11 months), compared to 46.9 in February 2025, and 52.0 in March 2024.
Of all the sectors, the trade sector reported the most optimistic expectations for its performance on the back of a sufficient supply of goods and robust consumer demand, the sector’s index being 54.0 in March, compared to 49.2 in February 2025 and 55.1 in March 2024. Respondents expected an increase in trade turnover and the amount of goods purchased for sale, while also reporting more positive expectations about their stocks of goods for sale. As before, respondents continued to declare intentions to cut their trade margins.
Industrial companies reported an improvement in their positive economic expectations, thanks to robust consumer demand and a further increase in production, the sector’s index being 53.1 in March, compared to 50.2 in February 2025 and 51.0 in March 2024. Respondents were more upbeat about an increase in manufactured goods and the number of new orders for products, including export orders. They also expected a rise in their stocks of raw materials and supplies, and were less pessimistic about the amount of their unfinished goods. At the same time, respondents were more downbeat about their finished goods stocks.
Construction companies significantly improved their expectations of their economic performance due to seasonal factors, the sector’s index being 52.9 in March, compared to 44.7 in February 2025 and 53.5 in March 2024. Respondents reported much stronger intentions to purchase more raw materials and supplies. In contrast to the four previous months, construction companies expected an increase in construction volumes and the number of new orders. Respondents said they intended to purchase many more contractor services on the back of weaker expectations of a rise in the cost of contractor services and stronger expectations of the availability of contractors.
Services companies improved their expectations significantly, but still reported the most guarded performance expectations of all sectors, due to shortages of qualified staff and higher production costs, the sector’s index being 48.8 in March, compared to 42.2 in February 2025 and 50.6 in March 2024. For the first time in the last ten months, respondents expected an increase in services provided, while expecting for the first time in the last 11 months an increase in the amount of services that are being provided. Services companies also reported significantly improved their still guarded expectations about the number of new orders for services.
Surveyed industrial and services companies expected that purchase prices would grow at a slower pace. They also declared weaker intentions to raise their selling prices. In contrast, construction and trading companies continued to report firm expectations of price growth.
Staff expectations have improved somewhat.
Construction companies declared intentions to hire more staff. Industrial companies softened their negative expectations, approaching close to the neutral level.
At the same time, trading and services companies reported slightly stronger intentions to reduce their staff numbers.
This survey was carried out from 5 March through 24 March 2025. A total of 529 companies were polled. Of the companies polled, 43.1% are industrial companies, 26.5% services companies, 25.3% trading companies, and 5.1% construction companies; 29.7% of the respondents are large companies, 27.4% medium companies, and 42.9% small companies.
Of the surveyed companies, 32.3% are both exporters and importers, 9.1% are exporters only, 17.4% are importers only, and 41.2% are neither exporters nor importers.
The findings presented reflect only the opinions of the respondents (top managers of companies), and should not be considered as NBU assessments.
The monthly business activity expectations index (BAEI) is a tool for conducting latest assessments and detecting trends in economic development. It is calculated on the basis of surveys of Ukrainian real sector companies regarding changes in their performance compared to the previous month.
Monthly business activity expectations indices are calculated on the basis of respondents’ replies. These indices are as follows: sectoral indices (for each sector of the economy) and a composite index (describes the country’s economic performance over a month). A value of 50 corresponds to the neutral level. Index values above the neutral level indicate positive expectations.
Read more about the March 2025 survey in the Monthly Surveys of Companies Subsection of the Publications Section on the NBU’s official website.
The NBU posts monthly survey results in the open data format.
The results of the next survey (for April 2025) will be published on the first business day of May 2025.