Authors: Mihnea Constantinescu, Kalle Kappner, Nikodem Szumilo
Abstract: We introduce the Warcast Index, an approach for estimating regional economic activity during periods of extreme uncertainty using publicly available data. We show that combining widely used correlates of economic activity – nightlight intensity, Google Trends, and Twitter activity – can improve the tracking of economic performance and even allow the approximation of monthly economic activity after extreme structural breaks, like war or occupation. We apply this approach to Ukraine during the 2022 war. Our findings show that combining multiple data sources not only improves tracking accuracy compared to single-correlate models, but also provides timely, transparent and flexible data for policy-making in situations where conventional economic data is unavailable or unreliable. We also contribute to the literature on wartime economics by providing a novel analysis of the economic effects of armed conflict with high frequency (monthly) and spatially granular (regional) data.
Cite as: Constantinescu, M., Kappner, K., Szumilo, N. (2024). The Warcast Index: Estimating Economic Activity without Official Data during the Ukraine War in 2022. NBU Working Papers, 3/2024. Kyiv: National Bank of Ukraine.
