Author: Mihnea Constantinescu.
Abstract: This study describes the various modeling options considered in extending the nowcasting and forecasting toolkit employed at the National Bank of Ukraine during the early stages of the 2022 russian invasion. It centers on a large palette of alternative data and modeling avenues, while also providing some general observations about the managerial and logistical challenges of continuing policy-relevant analytical work under conditions of exceptional stress.
Unlike a traditional survey, this paper provides an overview of numerous options considered potentially valuable in a war context but that have only partially been explored due to data limitations. The reasons for second or third best choices are described, as these may offer guidelines for similar contexts where looser data constraints may allow various alternatives to be estimated and tested. Some roads taken are also described.
Cite as: Constantinescu, M. (2025). Roads Not Taken: A Brief on Central Bank Research and Management during an Invasion. Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine (Occasional Papers, 2025/02). https://doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2025.op02.
