Authors: Maksym Homeniuk
Abstract: This paper estimates Ukraine’s inflation attention threshold using a text-based proxy derived from the relative frequency of the word "inflation" in parliamentary speeches. During a relatively stable macroeconomic period between 2017 and 2022, the estimated threshold is approximately 9-10%. This finding aligns with results obtained using Google Trends data, where attention increased just prior to inflation reaching double-digit levels. Crucially, the parliamentary proxy also facilitates estimation for another stable period preceding the global financial crisis (2002–2007). The remarkably similar threshold estimates across both stable periods suggest that attention dynamics in Ukraine exhibit structural consistency under non-crisis conditions. These findings underscore the value of parliamentary speech analysis as a robust tool for tracking inflation salience in contexts with limited data availability.
Cite as: Homeniuk, M. (2025). The double-digit trigger: Estimating inflation attention thresholds in Ukraine using parliamentary speeches. NBU Working Papers, 3/2025. Kyiv: National Bank of Ukraine.
