On 6 July 2018, a traditional open research seminar took place in the National Bank of Ukraine. The NBU researcher Oleksandr Faryna presented his joint research on “The Transmission of International Shocks to CIS Economies: A Global VAR Approach” co-authored with Heli Simola form the Bank of Finland Institute of Economies in Transition (BOFIT).
The paper presented employs a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model and studies how the response of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to foreign output and oil price shocks have evolved over last decades as cross-country trade and financial linkages experienced notable changes.
The results suggest that the US plays a dominant role in the world economy and for CIS in particular, but the effect is declining. In addition, despite the growing importance of China in the global arena, the response to Chinese shocks remains moderate.
Meanwhile, the sensitivity to euro area and Russian shocks increased substantially despite considerable decline in the trade and financial relationships between CIS and Russia. Finally, regional output shocks and oil price shocks are becoming major drivers for CIS’s real activity.
We invite potential speakers to attend the following seminars. The materials with the results of scientific research (article and / or presentation), the author's resume and the desired date for the seminar should be sent to the Research Division of the Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis Department at e-mail: [email protected].