Businesses reported guarded expectations of their current economic performance in November. Significant losses from the intensified aerial attacks on critical infrastructure, power outages, rising business costs for raw materials, fuel, and wages, limited logistical capacity, and a shortage of qualified staff impeded the economic activity of companies. Robust consumer demand, budgetary spending on infrastructure repairs and road construction, along with steadily decelerating inflation, remained positive factors.
This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI), which the NBU calculates on a monthly basis, apart from a forced break in March–May 2022. The BAEI was 49.4 in November 2025, down from 50.3 in October 2025, but was above the figure of 47.2 for November 2024.
Buoyant consumer demand, steadily decelerating inflation and diverse goods supply helped trading companies maintain positive views of their current performance for nine consecutive months, and be the most optimistic among all sectors for three months in a row: the sector’s index was 53.8 in November, compared to 54.3 in October 2025 and 51.4 in November 2024. Respondents expected a further increase in trade turnover and in the amount of goods purchased for sale. At the same time, companies were less upbeat about their stocks of goods for sale. Respondents reported intentions to cut their trade margins more pronouncedly.
Construction companies’ performance expectations were unchanged on the previous month, on the back of budgetary spending on infrastructure repairs and road construction, and robust consumer demand, the sector’s index being 50.0 in November, compared to 53.3 in October 2025 and 43.6 in November 2024. Respondents expected an increase, albeit at a slower pace, in construction volumes and in purchases of raw materials and supplies. In view of seasonal factors, construction companies expected a significant decrease in the number of new orders. Respondents continued to report strong intentions to purchase contractor services, amid the softening of still guarded expectations about contractors’ availability and weaker growth in the cost of contractor services.
Despite softening their expectations slightly, services companies continued to report guarded expectations of their economic performance, given the deteriorating security situation, power outages, and more complicated and expensive logistics: the sector’s index was 49.1 in November, compared to 48.7 in October 2025 and 44.8 in November 2024. Respondents reported more guarded expectations for the number of new orders for services. For three months running, respondents have said they expected a further increase in the amount of services provided and the amount of services that are being provided.
Industrial companies had the most constrained expectations of their current performance of all sectors due to intensified aerial attacks, the destruction of production facilities, power outages, higher production costs, and a shortage of qualified staff, the sector’s index being 46.8 in November, compared to 48.8 in October 2025 and 46.7 in November 2024. In contrast to the previous month, respondents expected a decrease in the amount of manufactured goods, a further drop in the number of new orders for products, including export orders, and a decline in the amount of unfinished products. Meanwhile, respondents were more upbeat about their finished goods stocks.
Industrial and construction companies said they expected slower growth in supplier prices, and declared less firm intentions to raise their selling prices. Meanwhile, trading and services companies reported firm intentions to raise their selling prices on the back of continued expectations of faster growth in purchase prices.
Labor market conditions were unstable. Only trading companies said they intended to hire more staff. Industrial, services and construction companies declared intentions to reduce their workforces, with industrial companies reporting the strongest intentions.
This survey was carried out from 4 November through 21 November 2025. A total of 592 companies were polled. Of the companies polled, 43.6% are industrial companies, 25.0% services companies, 25.3% trading companies, and 6.1% construction companies; 30.4% of the respondents are large companies, 28.7% medium companies, and 40.9% small companies.
Of the surveyed companies, 34.0% are both exporters and importers, 9.8% are exporters only, 17.2% are importers only, and 39.0% are neither exporters nor importers.
The findings presented reflect only the opinions of the respondents (top managers of companies), and should not be considered as NBU assessments.
The monthly business activity expectations index (BAEI) is a tool for conducting latest assessments and detecting trends in economic development. It is calculated on the basis of surveys of Ukrainian real sector companies regarding changes in their performance compared to the previous month.
Monthly business activity expectations indices are calculated on the basis of respondents’ replies. These indices are as follows: sectoral indices (for each sector of the economy) and a composite index (describes the country’s economic performance over a month). A value of 50 corresponds to the neutral level. Index values above the neutral level indicate positive expectations.
Read more about the November 2025 survey in the Monthly Surveys of Companies Subsection of the Publications Section on the NBU’s official website.
The NBU posts monthly survey results in the open data format.
The results of the next survey (for December 2025) will be published on the first business day of January 2026