Businesses Significantly Upgrade Their Performance Expectations – Business Outlook Survey in March

In March, businesses returned to reporting a positive economic outlook, with improvements in both monthly and annual terms. For the first time since May 2025, an improvement was expected across all of the surveyed sectors. The optimistic forecasts were fueled by the gradual improvement in the energy sector, a rebound in consumer demand, international financial aid, a sustainable FX market, and seasonal factors. At the same time, intensified attacks on critical facilities, elevated inflation expectations, and a shortage of skilled workers remained constraining factors.

This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI), which the NBU calculates on a monthly basis, apart from the forced break in March–May 2022. In March 2026, the BAEI was 52.7, compared to 45.9 in February 2026 and 51.8 in March 2025.

Construction companies reported the most optimistic performance expectations of all sectors, thanks to favorable weather conditions and the need for road repairs, the sector’s index being 55.0 in March, up from 46.6 in February and 52.9 in March 2025. In contrast to the previous month, respondents expected a rise in construction volumes. Construction companies also expected a surge in the number of new orders and in purchases of raw materials and supplies. Respondents said they intended to purchase many more contractor services despite persistent expectations of the high cost of contractor services. Respondents were also somewhat more confident of the availability of contractors.

For the first time in nine months, industrial companies reported a positive economic outlook amid the gradual stabilization of the energy sector and a boost in consumer demand, the sector’s index being 51.2 in March, compared to 46.9 in February and 53.1 in March 2025. In contrast to previous months, respondents expected a rise in the amount of manufactured goods and in the number of new orders for products, including export orders. Respondents were also upbeat about their finished goods stocks. Industrial companies continued to expect a decline in the amount of unfinished products, while being less pessimistic about a decrease in their stocks of raw materials and supplies.

Trading companies also reported an optimistic economic outlook on the back of a sufficient supply of goods and slowing inflation, the sector’s index being 54.0 in March, compared to 45.0 in February 2026 and unchanged on March 2025. In contrast to the previous month, respondents expected an increase in trade turnover and in the amount of goods purchased for sale. Simultaneously, companies improved their expectations about their stocks of goods for sale. As before, respondents said they intended to cut their trade margins, albeit at a slower pace.

Services companies reported positive performance expectations for the first time in ten months, thanks to the gradual stabilization of the energy sector and a revival in domestic demand, the sector’s index was 52.8 in March, compared to 45.4 in February, being significantly higher than the figure of 48.8 for March 2025. Respondents expected an increase in the amount of services provided, the number of new orders for services, and in the amount of services that are being provided.

Companies across all sectors declared intentions to raise their selling prices at a faster pace on the back of continued increases in purchase prices, and in raw material and supplies prices. Only construction companies expected slower growth in purchase prices.

Labor market conditions remained unstable. As in the previous survey, only construction companies reported intentions to expand their workforces. Conversely, companies in other sectors said they intended to lay off staff, with the strongest intentions being expressed by industrial companies.