In Q3 2025, businesses remained optimistic about their economic performance over the next 12 months. Despite a moderate rise in inflation and exchange rate expectations, respondents continued to expect an increase in the output of Ukrainian goods and services, while also reporting a positive outlook for the performance of their companies.
The business outlook index (BOI) was 102.5%, compared to 103.1% in Q2 2025 (Q2)
Respondents remained upbeat about total sales, investment in machinery, equipment and tools, and about the financial and economic standings of their companies. A rebound in business activity was expected by companies in 15 oblasts and across most economic sectors. In contrast, staffing level expectations remained guarded.
Respondents continued to refer to the war and its repercussions as the most crucial factor that hampered their ability to step up production. The impact of qualified staff shortages was still substantial. At the same time, the impact of the exchange rate weakened noticeably.
Businesses’ Macroeconomic Expectations for Ukraine
Respondents continued to expect an increase in the output of Ukrainian goods and services over the next 12 months, albeit at a slower pace, the balance of responses being 6.1%, compared to 9.2% in Q2.
Companies in 12 oblasts, across most economic sectors, medium and large companies, and companies across all business activities said they planned to step up production over the next 12 months.
The strongest intentions were reported by energy and water supply companies, large companies, and by companies that are exporters only.
Inflation expectations strengthened slightly – in Q3 the expected annual inflation rate for the next 12 months was 11.4%, compared to 10.9% in the previous quarter. The percentage of respondents who believed that inflation would exceed 15.0% was 22.0%, up from 15.0% in the previous survey.
A total of 79.8% of respondents continued to see the ongoing hostilities as the most important inflation driver. The impact of global prices has increased for five quarters running.
Respondents also expected an increase in the impact of the exchange rate. In contrast, the impact of tax changes was reported to have weakened for two quarters in a row.
The UAH/USD exchange rate was projected to hit UAH 44.11 per USD 1, compared to UAH 43.84 per USD 1 in Q2. 60.2% of respondents said the exchange rate would exceed UAH 43.50 per USD 1, while 38.6% of respondents believed that the exchange rate would range between UAH 40.51 and UAH 43.50 per USD 1.
Companies’ Current Standings and Their Business Outlook
Respondents remained downbeat about the current financial and economic standings of their companies, the balance of responses being (-4.5%), up from (-5.3%) in Q2.
Respondents retained a positive outlook for the financial and economic standings of their companies for the next 12 months, the balance of responses being 1.7%, down from 2.4% in Q2 2025.
Optimistic expectations were reported by respondents from energy and water supply companies, manufacturing companies, respondents engaged in other economic activities, and by respondents from agricultural companies. In contrast, respondents from construction, transport and communications, and trading companies had guarded expectations.
Businesses expected total sales, including external sales, to grow at a faster pace over the next 12 months, the balances of responses being 11.0% and 16.1% respectively, compared to 10.5% and 9.4% in Q2. Growth in total sales was expected across most sectors, and most of all by respondents from manufacturing, energy and water supply and agricultural companies. An increase in external sales was expected the most by respondents from agricultural and manufacturing companies, as well as by respondents engaged in other economic activities.
Companies said they intended to step up investment in machinery, equipment and tools at a slower pace, the balance of responses being 4.3%, down from 7.8% in Q2. At the same time, respondents expressed guarded expectations for construction investment, the balance of responses being 0.0%, compared to (-0.7%) in Q2.
Businesses that raise foreign investment reported firmer expectations of investment growth over the next 12 months, the balance of responses being 18.7%, up from in 14.3% in Q2. The firmest expectations were declared by respondents from energy and water supply companies. The share of respondents who plan to raise foreign investment over the next 12 months was 23.3%, up from 20.2% in the previous survey.
Respondents continued to report guarded staffing expectations for the next 12 months, the balance of responses being (-4.4%), unchanged on the previous quarter. Gloomy expectations were reported by respondents across most sectors, with the dimmest expectations reported by construction companies. In contrast, respondents from agricultural companies declared intentions to hire more staff over the next 12 months.
The percentage of respondents who plan to take out bank loans dropped to 33.3% (down from 33.9% in Q2) on the back of a slight decrease in borrowing needs in the near future (to 32.8% in Q3, down from 33.3% in Q2).
Companies that intended to take out bank loans continued to prefer hryvnia loans – 78.8%, compared to 83.0% in Q2. High loan rates remained the main factor deterring businesses from taking out new loans (47.7% of responses). The percentage of respondents who cited the availability of other funding sources remained significant, at 41.6%, down from 43.6% in the previous survey.
The impact of collateral requirements increased most of all, by 2.5 pp, to 29.9%.
Respondents said that lending conditions had tightened (the balance of responses was 12.4%, up from 9.8% in the previous quarter).
The percentage of respondents who intended to take out foreign loans was 6.8%, up from 6.4% in the previous quarter.
This survey was conducted from 31 July through 28 August 2025. A total of 669 companies in 21 oblasts took part in the survey (excluding the temporarily occupied territory of Crimea, as well as Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson oblasts). Of the businesses polled, 20.5% were in trade, 19.9% in manufacturing, 14.2% in agriculture, 13.6% in transport and communications, 5.8% in mining, 5.4% in energy and water supply, 3.1% in construction, and 17.5% in other sectors; 33.2% of the respondents were large companies, 36.2% medium companies, and 30.6% small companies.
The findings presented reflect only the opinions of the respondents (top managers of companies), and should not be considered as NBU assessments.
The business outlook index is an aggregated indicator for companies’ performance expectations over the next 12 months. It is calculated on the basis of survey findings as the arithmetic mean of the balances of responses regarding companies’ financial and economic standings, total sales of their own products, investment spending on construction, and on machinery, equipment and tools, as well as regarding staff numbers. An index above 100 indicates that positive economic sentiment prevails in society, while an index below 100 shows that negative economic sentiment prevails.