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September BOS shows that businesses remain upbeat about their performance outlook

September BOS shows that businesses remain upbeat about their performance outlook

In September, businesses remained upbeat about their performance outlook on the back of robust consumer demand, a favorable external environment, and ongoing growth in investment activity. This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI), which the NBU calculates on a monthly basis. In September 2021, the index was 53.1, down from 53.4 in August. All of the sectoral indices have been above their neutral level for two months running.

Trading companies expressed the most optimistic views about their performance outlook, as the sector’s index moved to 56.1 in September, up from 51.1 in August. Respondents markedly upgraded their expectations of trade turnover and the amount of goods purchased for sale.

Industrial companies have been upbeat about their economic performance outlook for five months running, the sector’s DI being 52.8 in September, down from 54.3 in August. As in previous months, respondents expected an increase in the amount of manufactured goods and the number of new orders for products, including export orders. 

Services companies also remain optimistic about their performance, the sector’s index being 51.8 in September, down from 54.1 in August. Respondents continued to expect an increase in the amount of services provided, the number of new orders, and the amount of services that are being provided. 

Construction companies were also upbeat about their economic performance outlook, the sector’s DI being 51.6 in September, down from 53.0 in August.  Respondents expressed positive, albeit slightly guarded views, about construction volumes and the number of new orders, expecting as a result a slight decrease in purchases of raw materials and supplies.

Companies across all sectors reported intentions to raise their selling prices further amid strong expectations of higher raw material and supplies prices.

Employment expectations were for the most part restrained: only trading companies said they intended to hire more staff, while industrial, construction and services companies reported intentions to cut their workforces.

Background information

This survey was carried out from 6 September through 23 September 2021. A total of 324 companies were polled. Of the companies polled, 42.9% are industrial companies, 29.3% companies in the services sector, 21.9% trading companies, and 5.9% construction companies; 37.0% of the respondents are large companies, 30.2% medium companies, and 32.7% small companies. 

Of the companies surveyed, 40.7% are both exporters and importers, 7.7% are exporters only, 14.5% are importers only, and 37.0% are neither exporters nor importers.

This survey only reflects the opinions of the respondents (top-managers of Ukrainian companies), and does not represent the NBU’s forecasts or assessments.

The business activity expectations index (BAEI) is a tool for conducting latest assessments and detecting trends in economic development. It is calculated on the basis of surveys of Ukrainian real sector companies. 

Monthly business activity expectations indices are calculated on the basis of respondents’ replies. These indices are as follows: sectoral indices (for each sector of the economy) and a composite index (describes the country’s economic development over a month). A value of 50 corresponds to the neutral level. Index values above the neutral level indicate positive expectations.

Read more about the September 2021 survey in the Monthly Surveys of Companies Subsection of the Publications Section on the NBU’s official website. 

The NBU has started posting monthly survey results in the open data format.

The results of the next survey (for October) will be published on the first business day of November 2021.

 

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