Three open research seminars will take place at the NBU in the days leading up to the Annual International Research Conference Central Bank Communications: From Mystery to Transparency, which the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) will host in collaboration with Narodowy Bank Polski on 23–24 May 2019.
The first seminar, scheduled for May 21, will be given by Dr Klodiana Istrefi, an Economist at the Monetary Policy Research Division of the Banque de France. Dr Istrefi will present her study Perceived FOMC: The Making of Hawks, Doves, and Swingers, which she coauthored with Michael D. Bordo, a Board of Governors Professor at Rutgers University. The paper explores how policy preferences of the Federal Open Market Committee members influence the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve System.
The study divides the FOMC members into three types, depending on their priorities: Hawks, who prioritize fighting against inflation; Doves, who prefer to stimulate production and employment; and Swingers, who switch between hawks and doves, thus may change their policy views over time. The authors analyze the biographies of the 130 individuals who were FOMC members between 1960, when the Fed was chaired by William M. Martin, and 2015, when it was chaired by Janet Yellen. The authors find that the ideologies that were dominant and the events that occurred in the lives of the 130 individuals before they were appointed to serve on the FOMC played an important role in shaping their (persistent) views on monetary policy.
The seminar starts on 21 May at 11 a.m. The registration of participants will take place from 10:45 a.m. to 10:55 a.m. To participate, you must submit an application to: [email protected] before 2 p.m. on 17 May 2019. Make sure to indicate the participant’s first and last name, place of work, and contact information (telephone, email). Given the limited number of seats, the NBU reserves the right to deny participation.
The second seminar will be given on 22 May by Etibar Jafarov, a senior economist at the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Jafarov will present his research on how central bank credibility determined policy response to large terms-of-trade shock in Latin American countries, and on how transparency and clear communication can enhance the credibility of the policy.
Mr. Jafarov analyzes the communications of 20 inflation targeting central banks, paying special attention to Latin America’s largest countries – Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru – whose currencies underwent very large depreciations in recent years. He argues that transparency and clear communication by central banks promote credibility and make their policies more predictable. Higher credibility, in turn, provides a greater room to maneuver for interest rate policy in the face of inflation shocks, thus allowing better manage adverse shocks.
The seminar starts on 22 May at 11 a.m. The registration of participants will take place between 10:45 a.m. and 10:55 a.m. Participants will be required to present an ID at the time of registration. To participate, you must submit an application to: [email protected] before 2 p.m. on 17 May 2019. Make sure to indicate the participant’s first and last name, place of work, and contact information (telephone, email).
The third seminar, Mastering Central Banks' Communication Challenges via Twitter, is scheduled for 22 May and will be conducted by Dr Iikka Korhonen, Head of the Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT), and Dr Elisa Newby, Head of Communications at the Bank of Finland.
The researchers assess how central banks’ Twitter usage has changed over time to reflect their new responsibilities vis-à-vis financial stability. More generally, they also document European central banks’ social media policies, and Twitter usage. Almost all members of the ESCB have institutional Twitter accounts, but their activity, content of tweets and restrictions of usage on individual staff members vary considerably. The experts have created a large database of all tweets by 46 European central banks and financial supervisors (including Ukraine, Switzerland and other non-EU countries) starting from the very point in time they joined Twitter creating a rich source of information. In particular, they have been analyzing relative weights/ importance of monetary policy and financial stability communication – the two new cornerstones of modern central banking.
The seminar starts on 22 May at 3 p.m. The registration of participants will take place between 2:45 p.m. and 2:55 p.m. Participants will be required to present an ID at the time of registration. To participate, you must submit an application to: [email protected] before 2 p.m. on 17 May 2019. Make sure to indicate the participant’s first and last name, place of work, and contact information (telephone, email).
The NBU launched open research seminars in July 2015. These seminars provide an opportunity to representatives of the academic and expert community, international financial institutions, other central banks, and the NBU to share their research findings and discuss them with peers.
The NBU invites researchers to participate in the NBU’s research seminars to present their findings on issues related to the NBU’s activities and the operation of the financial system. Email your proposals (along with a desired seminar date, presentation materials, an executive summary, and/or draft contributions) to the NBU Research Division of the Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis Department (email [email protected]).
The materials of previous open research seminars are available here.