In August 2025, inflation continued to slow, to 13.2% yoy. In monthly terms, prices decreased 0.2%. This is according to data published by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.
The actual trajectory of inflation turned out to be below the forecast path featured in the July Inflation Report, the main reason being that newly harvested crops boosted supply. Underlying price pressures also eased as the NBU took monetary policy measures and pressure from the labor market gradually moderated. Core-inflation trajectory was running close to the forecast.
Annual pace of growth in raw food prices continued to slow, to 23.9% yoy
Prices for some of the vegetables either decreased yoy or significantly slowed their growth due to the incoming harvest being higher than last year. The rate of increase in fruit prices also began to decelerate, but remained substantial because part of the crop was lost to frost this past spring. Price growth for flour and certain cereals decelerated too. By contrast, all types of meat kept rising in price at an increasing clip due to higher production costs and lower livestock numbers.
Core inflation continued to decline, to 11.4%
The growth in the prices of processed foods decelerated to 17.7% yoy. Specifically, the increase in prices for dairy products, sunflower oil, bread, and bread products lost speed.
The growth in the prices of non-food products also slowed, to 2.8% yoy. The drop in clothing and footwear prices deepened.
Services inflation edged higher to 14.1%, primarily due to a hike in tariffs on mobile-phone services. Financial services, taxi rides, and health insurance also grew in price more quickly. In contrast, inflation in the vast majority of other services lost pace.
Growth in administered prices decelerated slightly, to 10.8% yoy
The slowdown is attributable to a more sluggish pace of increase in the prices of alcoholic beverages. Meanwhile, the pickup in the growth of tobacco product prices persisted.
Fuel price growth slowed to 6.0%
This was due to both a dip in global crude oil prices and a strengthening of the hryvnia against the euro.
Headline inflation has been slowing for three straight months, losing momentum somewhat faster than expected, while the development of its core component is tracing the NBU’s forecast rather closely. Inflation is seen to keep trending down in the months ahead. This will primarily be supported by further effects from the arrival of new harvests and the NBU’s actions to maintain the sufficient attractiveness of hryvnia assets and to safeguard FX market sustainability.
An updated forecast for inflation and other macro variables will be presented during the NBU’s 23 October 2025 press briefing on monetary policy decisions. A detailed macro forecast will be published in the Inflation Report on 30 October 2025.