The next open research seminar is to take place at the National Bank of Ukraine on 11 April 2017. The seminar will focus on fiscal policy in recession. Dr. Philipp Engler, a researcher in the Department of Macroeconomics at the German Institute for Economic Research and an expert at German Advisory Group, will present the findings of his research investigating fiscal policy in recession.
The first issue for discussion is the policy of fiscal austerity in recession, which affects private consumption and, hence, may weaken economic recovery. Basing on the case study for Spain, Portugal, and Italy Dr. Engler is to discuss the failure of fiscal austerity in reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio. He argues that the spending cuts and tax increases are responsible for sending these three countries back into recession. In addition, Dr. Philipp Engler pays attention to structural reforms, which are often claimed to push out an economy from recession, while the real potential of the reforms for growth stimulation is under question.
The second question to highlight is the conditions for positive impact of loose fiscal policy on economy. According to Dr. Engler’s hypothesis, the presence of hysteresis in economy (recessions have a permanent effect on the level of output) makes fiscal multiplier significantly higher. Employing DSGE model, Dr. Engler concludes that the main benefit of accommodative fiscal policy in the presence of hysteresis is to mitigate the damage of a recession to output.
Representatives of academic and expert communities are welcome to discuss the role of fiscal policy in a recession.
Please follow the links to view the research papers: link and link.
The working language of the seminar will be English.
The seminar will start at 5 p.m. Seminar venue: room 206, 9, Instytutska St., Kyiv. The venue can be accessed via the central entrance. All participants are required to have a passport. Registration of participants will take place from 4.45 p.m. to 4.55 p.m.
In order to participate in a seminar, all interested stakeholders must submit an application indicating the applicant's first name and surname, place of employment, and contact information (telephone, e-mail) by the end of the day on 5 April 2017 via e-mail to [email protected]. Given the limited seats available, the NBU reserves the right to accept or reject applications. The NBU will inform each applicant as to acceptance or rejection of an application by the end of the day on 6 April 2017.
We also encourage potential contributors to participate in the upcoming seminars and present the findings of their research studies. To this end, please send your submissions (presentation materials and/or an article, CV, with an indication of a suitable date for the seminar to take place) to the Research Unit of the Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis Department for consideration via e-mail to: [email protected].