The NBU has published another issue of its peer-reviewed journal Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine. Topics covered in the issue:
Using machine-learning methods in her research, Tetiana Yukhymenko examines the role that news outlets play in the formation of inflation expectations. The author shows that the shaping of inflation expectations of respondents from different groups of economic agents (households, businesses, banks, and analysts) depends on the topic of the news.
The inflation expectations of households and financial analysts are found to be sensitive to utility tariff news, while those of businesses respond to food price news. The inflation expectations of financial analysts and households are also influenced by news about the level and frequency of exchange rate changes. Tetiana Yukhymenko concludes that the formation of inflation expectations of different groups of respondents may depend on the media environment, specifically the number of published articles.
The study’s findings improve our understanding of how the inflation expectations of various groups of economic agents are formed, and can help increase the effectiveness of the central bank’s communications.
A Heatmap to Monitor Systemic Risks to Financial Stability in Ukraine
The second article of this issue has been co-authored by Adam Gersl (Charles University, Czech Republic), Vladyslav Filatov (National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy), and NBU representatives Pervin Dadashova, Yuliia Bazhenova, Anatolii Hlazunov, and Roman Soltysiak. This study presents an updated risk map of the Ukrainian financial sector – an analytical tool for identifying and monitoring the buildup and materialization of systemic risks.
The updated methodology for charting the risk map of the financial sector is based exclusively on quantitative risk indicators and assesses the risks on the horizon of up to one year ahead. The tool allows policymakers to assess the stability of the financial system in terms of key risks, such as macroeconomic risk, credit risks of households and nonfinancial corporations, capital adequacy risk, profitability risk, liquidity risk, and currency risk. An important feature of the updated risk map is that it effectively reveals the financial system’s vulnerabilities and highlights the accumulation and materialization of systemic risks.
The financial sector’s risk map also plays an important role in central bank communications and is used to raise awareness among economic agents about the level and nature of risks.
Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine is indexed by IDEAS/RePEc, DOAJ, and others. Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine has been issued for the general public since September 2015. The journal has maintained its own website since 2019. The original language of the articles is English. Ukrainian translations are also provided (will be added later).
The judgements, conclusions, and ideas presented in the journal are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the editorial board or the official position of the NBU.
The editorial board invites financial market experts and representatives of the banking and academic communities to contribute to the discussion on the topics covered by the journal and send research materials for review and publication to: [email protected]. Authors can publish for free. The NBU translates and edits the articles.
For more on the journal and its publication requirements, please follow the link.