The new issue of the Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine focuses on the following issues: Is the economy of Ukraine sensitive to foreign shocks? How does the NBU monetary policy affect the financial market indicators? What is the natural level of dollarization for Ukraine?
In this issue of the Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, the authors focus on the following topics:
The first article by Oleksandr Faryna and Heli Simola examines the impact of trade relations on the sensitivity of Ukraine's economy to foreign shocks. The authors apply a global vector autoregressive model. The results show that the sensitivity of the Ukrainian economy to output shocks in advanced economies is high and depends not only on trade composition. In contrast, Ukraine’s response to output shocks in emerging economies, i.e., China, CEE, the CIS, and Russia, is determined mainly by bilateral trade links.
The second article by Oleksandr Zholud, Volodymyr Lepushynskyi and Sergiy Nikolaychuk explores how monetary channels affect the financial sector. The authors conclude that the central bank has sufficient control over short-term interest rates in the interbank market and that it uses them to influence other financial market indicators. At the same time, further transmission via the interest rate channel is constrained by weak lending and the banking system’s slow post-crisis recovery. A key finding: the leading role of the exchange rate channel is expected to gradually decrease, but will remain important.
The third article by Kostiantyn Khvedchuk, Valentyna Sinichenko and Barry Topf studies financial dollarization in Ukraine, i.e. the share of financial assets and liabilities in foreign currency in the economy. Some degree of dollarization is always present in an open economy, but excessive dollarization is undesirable. The authors derive the natural level of dollarization for Ukraine and propose policy measures to reduce dollarization to its estimated natural range.
Please note that the Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine is indexed by RePEc, Index Copernicus International among other databases (Dimensions, SciLit, Lens). In addition, now the journal is included in DOAJ (Directory of Open Access Journals), the online directory, which identifies and provides access to quality open access, peer-reviewed journals. Since September 2015, the Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine is released for open access on the official NBU site quarterly in English with Ukrainian translation. The journal features articles that express views and ideas of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or an official position of the NBU.
The editorial board invites researchers, experts, financial analysts, and representatives of the banking academic community to join research efforts within the scope of the journal and to email research materials for review and publication to [email protected].
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