The NBU has published a new issue of the peer-reviewed journal "Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine". In the current issue, you can find the following research papers:
How Does the Interest Rate Influence the Exchange Rate?
Adam Hashchyshyn (Kyiv School of Economics), Kateryna Marushchak (Kyiv School of Economics), Oleksandr Sukhomlyn (NBU), and Andrii Tarasenko (University of Mannheim), using meta-analysis methods, infer that increasing/decreasing the key policy rate can lead to appreciation/depreciation of the national currency, but only in the short term. The magnitude of this relationship depends on the level of monetary freedom and GDP per capita in a given country.
The Missing "Cycle" Part and Other Thoughts on the Global Financial Cycle
Olga Bondarenko (NBU) investigates the global financial cycle caused by co-movements in cross-border capital flows. The author concludes that the global common factor is of limited importance for capital flows, and domestic policy thus plays a key role in maintaining macroeconomic stability.
Predicting Bank Defaults in Ukraine: A Macro-Micro Perspective
In the final article of this issue, Anatolii Hlazunov (NBU) and Olesia Verchenko (Kyiv School of Economics) proposed a model that successfully predicted the 2014–2015 crisis four quarters ahead of its onset. The authors also estimate the probability of default, which could signal vulnerability in a bank and in a financial system in general.
Please note that the Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine is indexed by IDEAS/RePEc, Index Copernicus International, and DOAJ. Since September 2015, the Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine has been released for open access. Since 2019, the journal has been issued on his own website https://journal.bank.gov.ua/.
The journal features articles that express views and ideas of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or an official position of the NBU.
The editorial board invites researchers, experts, financial analysts, and representatives of the banking academic community to join research efforts within the scope of the journal and to email research materials for review and publication to [email protected]. For more information on requirements for articles, please go to https://journal.bank.gov.ua/en/for-authors.