In May, businesses returned to reporting a positive economic outlook. For the first time since May 2024, growth was expected by all surveyed sectors. Robust consumer demand, a stable energy sector, international financial assistance, and seasonal factors contributed to the positive expectations of companies across all economic sectors. At the same time, intensified attacks on critical facilities, exchange rate and inflation expectations, and a shortage of skilled workers remained constraining factors.
This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI), which the NBU calculates on a monthly basis, apart from a forced break in March–May 2022. The BAEI was 50.8 in May 2025, up from 49.4 in April 2025, being above the figure for May 2024 (48.0).
On the back of sustained domestic demand and seasonal factors, construction companies reported the most optimistic economic outlook, the sector’s index being 51.5 in May, compared to 47.3 in April 2025 and 49.8 in May 2024. Respondents expected a significant increase in construction volumes, the number of new orders, and in purchases of raw materials and supplies. Despite a rise in the cost of contractor services, respondents said they expected a noticeable increase in purchases of contractor services. At the same time, construction companies were slightly more confident of the availability of contractors.
Industrial companies have reported a positive economic outlook for four months in a row, thanks to robust consumer sentiment and a stable situation in the energy sector, the sector’s index being 51.1 in May, compared to 51.8 in April 2025 and 48.8 in May 2024. Respondents remained upbeat about the amount of manufactured goods and the number of new orders for products, while expecting the number of new export orders to be unchanged on the previous month. In contrast, respondents remained pessimistic about the amount of their unfinished products, their stocks of raw materials and supplies, and finished goods stocks.
Trading companies have reported a positive economic outlook for three months in a row, the sector’s index being 50.3 in May, compared to 51.2 in April 2025 and 47.7 in May 2024. Respondents were less confident about an increase in trade turnover and about the amount of goods purchased for sale, while also expecting a decrease in their stocks of goods for sale. As before, respondents continued to declare intentions to cut their trade margins.
For the first time since May 2024, services companies reported a positive economic outlook, due to reestablished logistical chains and rebounding demand, the sector’s index being 50.9 in May, compared to 46.3 in April 2025 and 47.2 in May 2024. Respondents expected an increase in the amount of services provided, the number of new orders, and in the amount of services that are being provided.
On the back of expected weaker growth in purchase prices, surveyed industrial, trading and services companies expected that purchase prices would grow at a slower pace. They also declared less firm intentions to raise their selling prices. In contrast, construction companies reported expectations of stronger price growth.
Staff expectations remained patchy. Construction companies said they intended to hire more staff. Conversely, companies in other sectors said they intended to cut their workforces.
This survey was carried out from 5 May through 23 May 2025. A total of 565 companies were polled. Of the companies polled, 42.5% are industrial companies, 26.9% services companies, 25.3% trading companies, and 5.3% construction companies; 27.6% of the respondents are large companies, 27.8% medium companies, and 44.6% small companies.
Of the surveyed companies, 31.2% are both exporters and importers, 9.9% are exporters only, 18.2% are importers only, and 40.7% are neither exporters nor importers.
The findings presented reflect only the opinions of the respondents (top managers of companies), and should not be considered as NBU assessments.
The monthly business activity expectations index (BAEI) is a tool for conducting latest assessments and detecting trends in economic development. It is calculated on the basis of surveys of Ukrainian real sector companies regarding changes in their performance compared to the previous month.
Monthly business activity expectations indices are calculated on the basis of respondents’ replies. These indices are as follows: sectoral indices (for each sector of the economy) and a composite index (describes the country’s economic performance over a month). A value of 50 corresponds to the neutral level. Index values above the neutral level indicate positive expectations.
Read more about the May 2025 survey in the Monthly Surveys of Companies Subsection of the Publications Section on the NBU’s official website.
The NBU posts monthly survey results in the open data format.
The results of the next survey (for June 2025) will be published on the first business day of July 2025.