In October, businesses remained upbeat about their performance outlook. The factors behind the persisting positive business outlook were international financial assistance, robust consumer demand, budgetary spending for infrastructure restoration and road construction, decelerating inflation, and a stable FX market.
Meanwhile, economic activity was constrained by the increasing intensity of missile and drone attacks, the destruction of energy infrastructure, logistical routes, and production facilities, power cuts, significant business costs for restoration, labor, and energy, as well as the continued shortage of labor.
This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI), which the NBU calculates on a monthly basis, apart from a forced break in March–May 2022. The BAEI was 50.3 in October 2025, down from 50.4 in September 2025, being above the figure for October 2024 (49.4).
The sufficient supply of goods from the new harvest, buoyant consumer demand, and decelerating inflation helped trading companies maintain positive views of their current performance for eight consecutive months, and be the most optimistic among all sectors for two months in a row: the sector’s index was 54.3 in October, compared to 54.0 in September 2025 and 51.9 in October 2024. Respondents expected a further increase in trade turnover and in the amount of goods purchased for sale. Trading companies were also more upbeat about their stocks of goods for sale. As before, respondents continued to declare intentions to cut their trade margins, albeit at a slower pace.
Thanks to budgetary spending on infrastructure restoration and road construction, the revival of housing construction and seasonal factors, construction companies also reported a more positive economic outlook: the sector’s index was 53.3 in October, compared to 50.0 in September 2025 and 49.6 in October 2024. Respondents were more confident about an increase in construction volumes, the number of new orders, and in purchases of raw materials and supplies. Respondents said they intended to purchase more contractor services on the back of expected weaker growth in the cost of these services. Respondents continued to soften their guarded expectations about the availability of contractors.
Due to the ongoing destruction of production facilities, the high costs of restoration, labor and energy, as well as power cuts, industrial companies reported more restrained expectations regarding their current performance: the sector’s index was 48.8 in October, compared to 49.1 in September 2025 and 49.8 in October 2024. In contrast to the previous month, respondents expected a decrease in the number of new orders for products and in stocks of raw materials and supplies. Companies expected a further drop in the number of new export orders for products, the amount of unfinished products and in finished goods stocks. At the same time, industrial companies remained upbeat about their manufactured goods volumes.
Services companies also reported more guarded expectations of their economic performance, given the destruction of railway infrastructure, more complicated and more expensive logistics, and the persistent shortage of qualified staff: the sector’s index was 48.7 in October, compared to 49.4 in September 2025 and 47.2 in October 2024. In contrast to the previous month, respondents expected a decrease in the number of new orders for services. At the same time, companies remained upbeat about the amount of services provided and the amount of services that are being provided.
Although expecting slower growth in supplier prices, industrial, construction and trading companies declared firm intentions to raise their selling prices. Meanwhile, services companies reported intentions to raise their selling prices on the back of expectations of faster growth in purchase prices.
Labor market conditions have improved slightly. Construction and trading companies said they intended to expand their workforces. Industrial and services companies continued to declare intentions to reduce their workforces, with industrial companies reporting the strongest intentions.
This survey was carried out from 6 October through 23 October 2025. A total of 593 companies were polled. Of the companies polled, 43.0% are industrial companies, 26.0% services companies, 25.1% trading companies, and 5.9% construction companies; 29.8% of the respondents are large companies, 28.5% medium companies, and 41.7% small companies.
Of the surveyed companies, 33.2% are both exporters and importers, 8.9% are exporters only, 17.9% are importers only, and 40.0% are neither exporters nor importers.
The findings presented reflect only the opinions of the respondents (top managers of companies), and should not be considered as NBU assessments.
The monthly business activity expectations index (BAEI) is a tool for conducting latest assessments and detecting trends in economic development. It is calculated on the basis of surveys of Ukrainian real sector companies regarding changes in their performance compared to the previous month.
Monthly business activity expectations indices are calculated on the basis of respondents’ replies. These indices are as follows: sectoral indices (for each sector of the economy) and a composite index (describes the country’s economic performance over a month). A value of 50 corresponds to the neutral level. Index values above the neutral level indicate positive expectations.
Read more about the October 2025 survey in the Monthly Surveys of Companies Subsection of the Publications Section on the NBU’s official website.
The NBU posts monthly survey results in the open data format.
The results of the next (November 2025) survey will be published on the first business day of December 2025.