Businesses retained guarded expectations of their current economic performance in December. A further deterioration of the security situation, prolonged power outages, rising production costs, the destruction of production and logistical facilities, a shortage of skilled staff, and seasonal factors continued to weigh on the economic activity of companies. At the same time, sustained consumer demand, international assistance, increased food supplies, and decelerating inflation remained positive factors.
This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI), which the NBU calculates on a monthly basis, apart from a forced break in March–May 2022. The BAEI was 49.2 in December 2025, while down from 49.4 in November 2025, it was significantly higher than the figure of 45.9 for December 2024, and was the highest December figure on record overall since the survey began.
Increased food supplies, a seasonal rise in demand and decelerating inflation helped trading companies maintain positive views of their current performance for ten consecutive months, and have made them the most optimistic among all sectors for four months in a row, the sector’s index being 52.2 in December, compared to 53.8 in November 2025 and 49.9 in December 2024. Respondents remained upbeat about trade turnover and about purchases of goods for sale. At the same time, companies retained their constrained expectations about their stocks of goods for sale. Respondents declared intentions to cut their trade margins further.
Services companies continued to soften their restrained expectations of their economic performance thanks to sustained consumer demand and decelerating inflation – the sector’s index came close to its neutral level and stood at 49.8 in December, compared to 49.1 in November 2025 and 44.5 in December 2024. In contrast to the previous month, companies were upbeat about the number of new orders for services, while also expecting a further increase in the amount of services provided and in the amount of services that are being provided.
In view of the seasonal nature of construction work and considerable power outages, construction companies reported a negative economic outlook, the sector’s index being 47.6 in December, compared to 50.0 in November 2025, and 43.4 in December 2024. Respondents were less confident about an increase in construction volumes and about purchases of contractor services. At the same time, respondents expected their purchases of raw materials and supplies to be unchanged on the previous month. Construction companies worsened their expectations about the ability of contractors. In contrast, respondents softened their still guarded expectations about the number of new orders.
Industrial companies have had the most constrained expectations of their current performance of all sectors for two months running due to power outages, higher production costs, and a shortage of qualified staff, the sector’s index being 46.5 in December, compared to 46.8 in November 2025 and 44.6 in December 2024. Respondents expected a further decrease in the amount of manufactured goods, the number of new orders for products, including export orders, and in the amount of unfinished products. Companies also expected a significant decline in their stocks of raw materials and supplies. Meanwhile, respondents remained upbeat about their finished goods stocks.
Despite persistently high purchase prices, construction and trading companies said they intended to raise their selling prices more moderately. Conversely, industrial and services companies said they expected faster growth in purchase prices, and declared firmer intentions to raise their selling prices.
Labor market conditions have eased. Respondents from construction and trading companies were upbeat about their staff numbers, while industrial and services companies retained their constrained employment expectations.
This survey was carried out from 4 December through 23 December 2025. A total of 603 companies were polled. Of the companies polled, 42.6% are industrial companies, 25.5% services companies, 26.0% trading companies, and 5.8% construction companies; 29.5% of the respondents are large companies, 29.2% medium companies, and 41.3% small companies.
Of the surveyed companies, 34.0% are both exporters and importers, 9.5% are exporters only, 17.9% are importers only, and 38.6% are neither exporters nor importers.
The findings presented reflect only the opinions of the respondents (top managers of companies), and should not be considered as NBU assessments.
The monthly business activity expectations index (BAEI) is a tool for conducting latest assessments and detecting trends in economic development. It is calculated on the basis of surveys of Ukrainian real sector companies regarding changes in their performance compared to the previous month.
Monthly business activity expectations indices are calculated on the basis of respondents’ replies. These indices are as follows: sectoral indices (for each sector of the economy) and a composite index (describes the country’s economic performance over a month). A value of 50 corresponds to the neutral level. Index values above the neutral level indicate positive expectations.
Read more about the December 2025 survey in the Monthly Surveys of Companies Subsection of the Publications Section on the NBU’s official website.
The NBU posts monthly survey results in the open data format.
The results of the next (January 2026) survey will be published on the first business day of February 2026.