The NBU has published another issue of the peer-reviewed journal Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine. Topics covered in the issue:
In the issue’s first article, Nadia Shapovalenko tests the forecasting accuracy of the models the NBU uses for the short-term forecasting of CPI components.
The findings suggest that for almost all CPI components, there are models that outperform benchmark AR models. However, the best-performing models differ by horizon and by CPI component. Combined forecasts obtained by averaging the models’ forecasts produce acceptable and robust results.
The author also describes relevant data restrictions in wartime and highlights avenues for improving the current suite of models for CPI forecasting.
Identifying Insurance Companies’ Business Models in Ukraine: Cluster Analysis and Machine Learning
In this paper, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi and Viktor Kolomiiets examine the business models of nonlife insurance companies that operated in Ukraine in 2019–2020. The authors analyze the migration of insurers between the identified clusters and conclude that companies following the Universal business model appear to be the most financially stable. Meanwhile, their peers from the Reinsurance cluster are most likely to post the least stable performance and exit the market. The findings of this research have significant policy implications for insurers and for the regulator’s insurance supervision efforts.
Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine is indexed by IDEAS/RePEc, Index Copernicus International, DOAJ, and ERIH Plus. Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine has been issued for the general public since 3 September 2015. Since 2019, the journal has had its own website. The original articles have been published in English. Ukrainian translations will be added later.
The judgements and ideas presented in the journal are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the editorial board or the official position of the NBU.
The editorial board invites researchers, experts, financial analysts, and representatives of the banking and academic communities to contribute to the topics covered by the journal and send research materials for review and publication to [email protected]. Authors can publish for free. The NBU translates and edits the articles.
For more on publication requirements, please follow the link.